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Article source: PChome, article has been partially truncated

Canalys released the latest research report, showing that on March 11, 2024, after the Central Government Procurement Center issued the "Notice on Priority procurement of domestic cpus and operating systems", it is expected that the domestic credit market will accelerate the transformation to local technology, and local cpus have significant growth potential. Canalys believes that this policy not only marks the acceleration of Xinchuang product procurement, but also indicates the deepening of domestic technology autonomy. Canalys data show that in 2023, the Chinese government and education sector will purchase 2.72 million PCS, accounting for 6% of the country's shipments, the vast majority of which still rely on Intel and AMD solutions. This policy change provides huge room for domestic CPU growth.

In terms of OEM distribution, government departments have shifted nearly 85% of their procurement needs to domestic brands led by Lenovo and Huawei. Both companies have launched products that meet the requirements of Xinchuang. Since 2021, the market share of international brands such as Dell and HP has fallen from more than 35% to less than 15%, showing that the trend of autonomy has begun. Therefore, even if the restrictions on government procurement are further expanded in the future, the impact on international brands will be quite limited. The brands that meet the requirements of domestic cpus in the notice include Longson, Feiteng, Zhaoxin, Huawei Kunpeng, Haiguang and Sunway. In the current limited scale of the credit creation market, the competition is particularly fierce. Among them, cpus based on x86 architecture launched by Mega Core and Haiguang, Mega Core's patent license is from VIA Electronics, and Haiguang's is from AMD. Other chip manufacturers are mostly based on the Arm architecture. Although the process and evaluation performance of the cpus currently listed can not be compared with the latest generation of cpus from Intel and AMD, the gradual optimization of operating systems such as UOS and Kirin with domestic software is enough to meet the needs of word processing and basic public services. Driven by the policy, the adoption rate of government procurement and some large state-owned enterprises is expected to grow.

In terms of operating systems, the current domestic systems are mainly based on Tongxin UOS and Kirin, and the total market share is basically linked to the shipments of Xinchuang products. It is expected that in the future, as the proportion of Xinchuang product procurement increases, these operating systems will also develop simultaneously. However, it is worth noting that it cannot be ruled out that Huawei will launch Kunpeng CPU-bound HarmonyOS products to enter the market next year or the year after, which is expected to further improve Huawei's product ecology and is expected to further intensify the competition between domestic operating systems.

For Xinchuang Market, its potential market development will include absorbing the remaining procurement needs of the government and education sector, and it is expected that some state-owned enterprises will also convert in response to government requirements. At present, among the products purchased by the Chinese mainland government and education departments, the products equipped with the listed CPU only account for 5% of the total shipments, which indicates that the Xinchuang market still has at least 20 times more room for development. For domestic brands such as Huawei and Tsinghua Tongfang, it is an important development opportunity. For international brands such as Dell and HP, it is necessary to carefully observe the development of their policies and adjust their strategies appropriately, which may shift to the consumer market or compensate by seizing other international market shares.

Although the new requirements are limited to cpus and operating systems, Canalys expects that the requirements for domestic components will continue to expand to other major components, including screens, memory, flash memory and batteries. At present, Chinese manufacturers have occupied a considerable share of screens and batteries, and the conversion is relatively easy. However, the leading memory and flash technology is still dominated by major players such as the US and South Korea.